Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Suns | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 64.0% | 36.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 47.4% | 52.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 38.9% | 61.1% | +2.5 | ✗ (15.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.8% | 51.2% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 52.9% | 47.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.7% | 46.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.7% | 46.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 47.6% | 52.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -13 (105-118). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Phoenix Suns
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant * | 41 | 8-15 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 23 | - | |
| Devin Booker * | 40 | 9-23 | 2-10 | 2-3 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 16 | - | |
| Bradley Beal * | 38 | 8-21 | 2-9 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 11 | - | |
| Jusuf Nurkic * | 26 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 13 | - | |
| Grayson Allen * | 13 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - | |
| Eric Gordon | 33 | 8-17 | 5-12 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 19 | - | |
| Drew Eubanks | 21 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 13 | - | |
| Josh Okogie | 18 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 15 | - | |
| Keita Bates-Diop | 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 37 | 7-12 | 2-2 | 10-10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 27 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 35 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 19 | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 34 | 5-18 | 5-12 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 9 | - | |
| Terry Rozier * | 27 | 8-14 | 4-6 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 13 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 15 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 25 | 0-6 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 24 | 5-9 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 10 | - | |
| Josh Richardson | 23 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 12 | - | |
| Kevin Love | 12 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter