Model Predictions
| Model | Denver Nuggets | Indiana Pacers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 79.8% | 20.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 55.5% | 44.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 60.0% | 40.0% | -2.2 | ✓ (2.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.2% | 50.8% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 54.5% | 45.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 52.9% | 47.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.8% | 47.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 47.2% | 52.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Indiana Pacers -5 (109-114). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic * | 37 | 13-19 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 13 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 31 | - | - | |
| Jamal Murray * | 36 | 11-24 | 3-9 | 6-6 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31 | - | - | |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope * | 34 | 5-12 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Aaron Gordon * | 32 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | - | - | |
| Michael Porter Jr. * | 30 | 2-9 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | - | - | |
| Reggie Jackson | 24 | 6-11 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Peyton Watson | 18 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | - | - | |
| Christian Braun | 14 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| DeAndre Jordan | 10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - | - |
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Turner * | 37 | 8-18 | 0-5 | 6-7 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Aaron Nesmith * | 33 | 5-13 | 1-7 | 2-2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Pascal Siakam * | 32 | 7-16 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Andrew Nembhard * | 27 | 7-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Buddy Hield * | 22 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | - | - | |
| Bennedict Mathurin | 28 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 4-5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| T.J. McConnell | 20 | 7-11 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Obi Toppin | 16 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Ben Sheppard | 12 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Isaiah Jackson | 9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - |
* = starter