Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Orlando Magic | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 35.6% | 64.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 37.3% | 62.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 41.0% | 59.0% | +2.0 | ✓ (16.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.9% | 55.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 40.6% | 59.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 42.2% | 57.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 42.2% | 57.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 40.8% | 59.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Orlando Magic +18 (105-87). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 34 | 8-17 | 0-1 | 6-6 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 25 | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 32 | 4-14 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 2 | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 31 | 5-7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 12 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 29 | 5-10 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 11 | - | |
| Nikola Jovic * | 15 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 25 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | - | |
| Kyle Lowry | 25 | 1-9 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 21 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - | |
| Kevin Love | 14 | 3-6 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | - | |
| Josh Richardson | 8 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - | |
| Orlando Robinson | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
Orlando Magic
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wendell Carter Jr. * | 34 | 7-11 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 18 | - | |
| Paolo Banchero * | 31 | 7-14 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 18 | - | |
| Markelle Fultz * | 29 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 13 | - | |
| Jalen Suggs * | 28 | 4-11 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 6 | - | |
| Franz Wagner * | 27 | 6-13 | 2-5 | 5-5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 13 | - | |
| Joe Ingles | 17 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | |
| Cole Anthony | 16 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | - | |
| Anthony Black | 13 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | - | |
| Jonathan Isaac | 13 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - | |
| Moritz Wagner | 10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 6-8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 | - | |
| Caleb Houstan | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | |
| Chuma Okeke | 3 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Trevelin Queen | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | |
| Jett Howard | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | - |
* = starter