Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Toronto Raptors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 34.8% | 65.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.2% | 54.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 53.3% | 46.7% | -0.7 | ✗ (24.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 56.4% | 43.6% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 70.2% | 29.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 67.9% | 32.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 67.9% | 32.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 58.7% | 41.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Toronto Raptors +24 (121-97). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 35 | 7-13 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 32 | 7-20 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 30 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 29 | 2-9 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jovic * | 21 | 4-9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 25 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Josh Richardson | 23 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 21 | 6-11 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 11 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| Thomas Bryant | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Cole Swider | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Orlando Robinson | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Barrett * | 36 | 9-14 | 1-3 | 7-13 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 26 | - | - | |
| Scottie Barnes * | 33 | 9-16 | 1-6 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 20 | - | - | |
| Gary Trent Jr. * | 30 | 10-13 | 8-9 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 28 | - | - | |
| Immanuel Quickley * | 30 | 6-16 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Jontay Porter * | 18 | 2-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - | - | |
| Thaddeus Young | 28 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Dennis Schroder | 26 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Chris Boucher | 17 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| Gradey Dick | 11 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Javon Freeman-Liberty | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Garrett Temple | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Jalen McDaniels | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter