Model Predictions
| Model | Orlando Magic | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 47.5% | 52.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.6% | 51.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 42.7% | 57.3% | +1.6 | ✓ (1.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.1% | 50.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 53.4% | 46.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 51.8% | 48.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 51.8% | 48.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.7% | 54.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +3 (99-96). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Orlando Magic
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paolo Banchero * | 36 | 10-26 | 1-7 | 4-6 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 25 | - | - | |
| Caleb Houstan * | 31 | 3-9 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Chuma Okeke * | 29 | 6-10 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | - | - | |
| Goga Bitadze * | 19 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| Jalen Suggs * | 13 | 1-5 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - | - | |
| Moritz Wagner | 28 | 7-9 | 0-1 | 5-5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 19 | - | - | |
| Cole Anthony | 27 | 2-8 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | - | - | |
| Joe Ingles | 20 | 5-10 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Markelle Fultz | 16 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | - | - | |
| Anthony Black | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | - | |
| Trevelin Queen | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Robinson * | 41 | 9-19 | 4-10 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 23 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 39 | 8-17 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. * | 36 | 8-16 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 31 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jovic * | 24 | 1-8 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Josh Richardson | 25 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 23 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love | 16 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - |
* = starter