Model Predictions
| Model | Oklahoma City Thunder | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 67.2% | 32.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 77.2% | 22.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 85.2% | 14.8% | -9.6 | ✓ (1.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 53.3% | 46.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 68.9% | 31.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 68.0% | 32.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 68.0% | 32.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 57.9% | 42.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat -8 (120-128). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Williams * | 34 | 8-15 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 9 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander * | 34 | 11-17 | 2-5 | 4-5 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 28 | - | - | |
| Chet Holmgren * | 33 | 10-15 | 1-5 | 2-3 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 23 | - | - | |
| Luguentz Dort * | 26 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Josh Giddey * | 20 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Isaiah Joe | 22 | 4-7 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Cason Wallace | 18 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Kenrich Williams | 16 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Vasilije Micic | 14 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Jaylin Williams | 12 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Aaron Wiggins | 7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 36 | 9-16 | 0-0 | 7-7 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 25 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 36 | 7-21 | 1-5 | 2-4 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 35 | 7-14 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. * | 33 | 6-9 | 3-5 | 6-9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jovic * | 32 | 5-8 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 24 | 1-8 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Josh Richardson | 20 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love | 19 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - |
* = starter