Model Predictions
| Model | Houston Rockets | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 46.2% | 53.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 60.5% | 39.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 64.3% | 35.7% | -3.2 | ✗ (10.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.1% | 52.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 47.4% | 52.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 48.3% | 51.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 48.3% | 51.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.7% | 56.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +7 (120-113). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred VanVleet * | 39 | 10-22 | 7-14 | 5-5 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 32 | - | - | |
| Jae'Sean Tate * | 33 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. * | 32 | 3-13 | 1-5 | 3-3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Alperen Sengun * | 32 | 9-15 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Jalen Green * | 31 | 2-10 | 2-8 | 5-6 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Aaron Holiday | 22 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 3-3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Jeff Green | 19 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | - | - | |
| Cam Whitmore | 17 | 5-8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Amen Thompson | 11 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. * | 38 | 5-11 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 34 | 10-20 | 5-10 | 3-3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 28 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 31 | 9-12 | 0-0 | 4-7 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jovic * | 21 | 2-9 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 6 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 16 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - | - | |
| Josh Richardson | 29 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 29 | 4-12 | 3-10 | 3-3 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love | 23 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 6-7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 15 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - |
* = starter