Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Phoenix Suns | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 22.0% | 78.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.5% | 61.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 44.9% | 55.1% | +1.1 | ✓ (14.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.2% | 54.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 41.1% | 58.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 40.3% | 59.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 40.3% | 59.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.0% | 61.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Suns +16 (113-97). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 36 | 11-19 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 28 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. * | 35 | 5-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 35 | 4-17 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jovic * | 24 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 22 | 2-7 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Josh Richardson | 28 | 2-9 | 1-6 | 5-5 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 26 | 1-7 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love | 20 | 6-9 | 3-6 | 5-6 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Jamal Cain | 4 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| R.J. Hampton | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Cole Swider | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Thomas Bryant | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Phoenix Suns
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grayson Allen * | 37 | 11-19 | 9-14 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 31 | - | - | |
| Bradley Beal * | 36 | 11-18 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 25 | - | - | |
| Devin Booker * | 34 | 9-19 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Jusuf Nurkic * | 26 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Chimezie Metu * | 17 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Josh Okogie | 24 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 7-8 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 7 | - | - | |
| Drew Eubanks | 21 | 4-8 | 1-1 | 2-4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Keita Bates-Diop | 18 | 0-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Bol Bol | 10 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - | - | |
| Yuta Watanabe | 8 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Jordan Goodwin | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Saben Lee | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter