Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 66.1% | 33.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 49.0% | 51.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 47.8% | 52.2% | +0.5 | ✓ (24.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 35.6% | 64.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 19.3% | 80.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 20.8% | 79.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 20.8% | 79.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 25.1% | 74.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +25 (144-119). Predictions use season-end ratings.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Vassell * | 30 | 3-13 | 0-6 | 3-3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Jeremy Sochan * | 29 | 9-16 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 23 | - | - | |
| Zach Collins * | 28 | 6-10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | - | - | |
| Malaki Branham * | 24 | 5-11 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Julian Champagnie * | 21 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Keldon Johnson | 23 | 6-16 | 2-8 | 2-4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Tre Jones | 17 | 4-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | 14 | 4-6 | 1-3 | 5-6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | - | - | |
| Sidy Cissoko | 14 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Blake Wesley | 11 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Cedi Osman | 9 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Devonte' Graham | 8 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Doug McDermott | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dante Exum * | 31 | 8-10 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 20 | - | - | |
| Luka Doncic * | 31 | 13-27 | 5-10 | 8-11 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 39 | - | - | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. * | 30 | 9-20 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23 | - | - | |
| Grant Williams * | 24 | 5-8 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. * | 24 | 4-7 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| A.J. Lawson | 30 | 7-10 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Dwight Powell | 22 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | - | - | |
| Jaden Hardy | 21 | 1-7 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper | 12 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Dexter Dennis | 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | - | |
| Greg Brown III | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter