Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 21.6% | 78.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 26.1% | 73.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 23.5% | 76.5% | +6.5 | ✓ (19.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.7% | 55.3% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 39.0% | 61.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 43.2% | 56.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 43.3% | 56.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 40.6% | 59.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets +26 (130-104). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic * | 36 | 13-24 | 6-12 | 6-10 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 38 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. * | 24 | 3-9 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Dwight Powell * | 23 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Grant Williams * | 22 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Dante Exum * | 22 | 5-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 21 | 3-12 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper | 20 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Jaden Hardy | 18 | 3-9 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| A.J. Lawson | 14 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Markieff Morris | 13 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Greg Brown III | 8 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Seth Curry | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Richaun Holmes | 6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic * | 27 | 3-8 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope * | 26 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Aaron Gordon * | 24 | 7-9 | 2-3 | 5-6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Jamal Murray * | 24 | 8-14 | 4-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 22 | - | - | |
| Michael Porter Jr. * | 22 | 3-8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Peyton Watson | 23 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 2-4 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Julian Strawther | 21 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Christian Braun | 20 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Zeke Nnaji | 20 | 5-8 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 14 | - | - | |
| Reggie Jackson | 18 | 9-12 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Justin Holiday | 5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | - | |
| Collin Gillespie | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter