Model Predictions
| Model | Oklahoma City Thunder | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 43.6% | 56.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 61.7% | 38.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 75.2% | 24.8% | -6.1 | ✓ (5.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.3% | 50.7% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 56.7% | 43.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 56.3% | 43.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 56.5% | 43.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.8% | 51.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets -1 (117-118). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander * | 36 | 9-20 | 0-2 | 7-8 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 25 | - | - | |
| Jalen Williams * | 32 | 11-20 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 24 | - | - | |
| Chet Holmgren * | 32 | 6-12 | 1-4 | 4-6 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 17 | - | - | |
| Luguentz Dort * | 26 | 4-8 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Josh Giddey * | 15 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Isaiah Joe | 26 | 4-7 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | - | - | |
| Jaylin Williams | 21 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Cason Wallace | 18 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Aaron Wiggins | 12 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Kenrich Williams | 12 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Ousmane Dieng | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic * | 37 | 8-15 | 1-2 | 7-8 | 6 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 24 | - | - | |
| Michael Porter Jr. * | 32 | 8-18 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Aaron Gordon * | 32 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Jamal Murray * | 27 | 5-13 | 0-6 | 5-5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Justin Holiday * | 25 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Christian Braun | 25 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Reggie Jackson | 21 | 3-10 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Peyton Watson | 16 | 5-8 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Julian Strawther | 14 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| DeAndre Jordan | 6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter