Model Predictions
| Model | Oklahoma City Thunder | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 66.5% | 33.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 77.4% | 22.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 87.6% | 12.4% | -10.8 | ✓ (4.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 51.6% | 48.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 64.1% | 35.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 59.9% | 40.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 60.0% | 40.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 51.5% | 48.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks -6 (120-126). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander * | 38 | 6-13 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 17 | - | - | |
| Luguentz Dort * | 32 | 4-13 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Chet Holmgren * | 30 | 4-10 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | - | - | |
| Jalen Williams * | 29 | 9-19 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 23 | - | - | |
| Josh Giddey * | 16 | 4-13 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Isaiah Joe | 25 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Cason Wallace | 20 | 6-12 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Jaylin Williams | 14 | 4-6 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Davis Bertans | 11 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 6-6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Kenrich Williams | 11 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Aaron Wiggins | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic * | 45 | 11-22 | 5-13 | 9-14 | 15 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 36 | - | - | |
| Dereck Lively II * | 39 | 9-9 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 20 | - | - | |
| Seth Curry * | 36 | 4-15 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. * | 32 | 8-15 | 6-12 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 24 | - | - | |
| Grant Williams * | 26 | 1-6 | 0-4 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| A.J. Lawson | 18 | 4-10 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | - | - | |
| Jaden Hardy | 14 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper | 14 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Richaun Holmes | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | - | |
| Dwight Powell | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Dexter Dennis | 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter