Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana Pacers | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 25.2% | 74.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.8% | 51.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 39.7% | 60.3% | +2.3 | ✗ (17.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.8% | 51.2% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 53.1% | 46.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 54.0% | 46.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.9% | 46.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.3% | 51.7% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -15 (129-144). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruce Brown * | 36 | 11-16 | 4-6 | 4-5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 20 | - | |
| Obi Toppin * | 34 | 7-8 | 4-5 | 4-4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 23 | - | |
| Myles Turner * | 30 | 8-12 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 18 | - | |
| Buddy Hield * | 24 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 5 | - | |
| Andrew Nembhard * | 23 | 1-9 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | - | |
| Aaron Nesmith | 28 | 7-9 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 17 | - | |
| Bennedict Mathurin | 25 | 6-10 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 15 | - | |
| T.J. McConnell | 25 | 10-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 22 | - | |
| Isaiah Jackson | 8 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 10 | - | |
| Ben Sheppard | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 37 | 12-23 | 0-1 | 9-9 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 20 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 30 | 7-11 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 11 | - | |
| Orlando Robinson * | 29 | 7-11 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 13 | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 28 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 35 | 8-15 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 9 | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 28 | 4-9 | 1-2 | 2-5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 10 | - | |
| Josh Richardson | 23 | 6-9 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 13 | - | |
| Kevin Love | 18 | 4-6 | 3-5 | 3-3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 | - | |
| Jamal Cain | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter