Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana Pacers | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 25.2% | 74.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.8% | 51.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 39.7% | 60.3% | +2.3 | ✓ (7.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.8% | 51.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 53.1% | 46.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 54.0% | 46.0% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.9% | 46.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.3% | 51.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +10 (142-132). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Haliburton * | 39 | 15-28 | 6-16 | 8-12 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 44 | - | - | |
| Obi Toppin * | 33 | 10-15 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 25 | - | - | |
| Bruce Brown * | 32 | 5-9 | 0-2 | 5-7 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Buddy Hield * | 30 | 5-16 | 2-11 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | - | - | |
| Myles Turner * | 29 | 5-14 | 0-5 | 3-5 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Bennedict Mathurin | 23 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Aaron Nesmith | 22 | 4-5 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Andrew Nembhard | 22 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Isaiah Jackson | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Jarace Walker | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Ben Sheppard | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 37 | 9-19 | 0-1 | 18-20 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 36 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 29 | 5-9 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 25 | 6-10 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 14 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 12 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 33 | 8-13 | 1-3 | 7-7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 24 | - | - | |
| Josh Richardson | 31 | 8-11 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 25 | 5-9 | 0-2 | 4-6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love | 17 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Orlando Robinson | 7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Thomas Bryant | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter