Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Cleveland Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 28.3% | 71.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 24.8% | 75.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 19.5% | 80.5% | +7.8 | ✗ (40.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.4% | 53.6% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 45.2% | 54.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 43.7% | 56.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 43.8% | 56.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 41.3% | 58.7% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Cleveland Cavaliers -33 (96-129). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry * | 29 | 9-15 | 7-10 | 3-4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 28 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 27 | 3-12 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 10 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 24 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 24 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Thomas Bryant * | 23 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 28 | 7-10 | 4-4 | 4-5 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Orlando Robinson | 27 | 6-9 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 | - | - | |
| Josh Richardson | 27 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 26 | 5-12 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Dru Smith | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Cleveland Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Porter * | 35 | 6-12 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | - | - | |
| Darius Garland * | 27 | 6-11 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Evan Mobley * | 25 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Max Strus * | 24 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| Jarrett Allen * | 22 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Georges Niang | 19 | 4-9 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Caris LeVert | 18 | 4-8 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | - | - | |
| Sam Merrill | 16 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Emoni Bates | 15 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Tristan Thompson | 13 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - | - | |
| Damian Jones | 12 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| Isaiah Mobley | 9 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter