Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | San Antonio Spurs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 19.9% | 80.1% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 37.1% | 62.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 40.9% | 59.1% | +2.0 | ✗ (7.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 56.7% | 43.3% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 70.5% | 29.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 66.0% | 34.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 66.0% | 34.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 57.2% | 42.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Antonio Spurs -5 (113-118). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Robinson * | 38 | 8-16 | 4-7 | 6-6 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 26 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 36 | 5-14 | 1-3 | 8-9 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 19 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 34 | 10-20 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 24 | - | - | |
| Josh Richardson * | 26 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 26 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 32 | 4-10 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | - | - | |
| Dru Smith | 26 | 4-9 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love | 14 | 3-8 | 2-7 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Thomas Bryant | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keldon Johnson * | 36 | 8-18 | 3-10 | 1-1 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 20 | - | - | |
| Victor Wembanyama * | 34 | 8-22 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 18 | - | - | |
| Devin Vassell * | 33 | 5-12 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Jeremy Sochan * | 33 | 6-9 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16 | - | - | |
| Zach Collins * | 33 | 6-14 | 1-4 | 5-6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 18 | - | - | |
| Doug McDermott | 21 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Cedi Osman | 20 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - | - | |
| Malaki Branham | 20 | 4-7 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Charles Bassey | 6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | - |
* = starter