Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Atlanta Hawks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.1% | 61.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.4% | 56.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 50.3% | 49.7% | -0.1 | ✓ (7.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 51.2% | 48.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 59.1% | 40.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 57.0% | 43.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 57.1% | 42.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 50.9% | 49.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Atlanta Hawks -8 (109-117). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 39 | 9-12 | 0-0 | 8-8 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 39 | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. * | 38 | 8-17 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 11 | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 33 | 4-8 | 4-6 | 5-5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 16 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 33 | 3-13 | 0-5 | 5-7 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 12 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 30 | 5-15 | 1-10 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 2 | - | |
| Dru Smith | 28 | 4-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 9 | - | |
| Josh Richardson | 22 | 6-7 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 11 | - | |
| Kevin Love | 13 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 | - | |
| Jamal Cain | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trae Young * | 38 | 7-19 | 3-9 | 10-11 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 22 | - | |
| De'Andre Hunter * | 35 | 4-11 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 8 | - | |
| Dejounte Murray * | 35 | 9-16 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 21 | - | |
| Clint Capela * | 23 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 17 | - | |
| Jalen Johnson * | 21 | 4-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | - | |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | 28 | 5-13 | 5-12 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 6 | - | |
| Saddiq Bey | 24 | 3-9 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | - | |
| Onyeka Okongwu | 24 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 10 | - | |
| Wesley Matthews | 7 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | - |
* = starter