Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Memphis Grizzlies | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 56.6% | 43.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.2% | 61.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 34.1% | 65.9% | +3.6 | ✗ (9.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 58.7% | 41.3% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 73.5% | 26.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 69.6% | 30.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 69.7% | 30.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 59.7% | 40.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Memphis Grizzlies -6 (102-108). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 36 | 8-15 | 0-0 | 14-16 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 31 | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 34 | 5-11 | 4-7 | 3-3 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 27 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 34 | 5-13 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 9 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 26 | 5-7 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 14 | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 35 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 21 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 13 | - | |
| Josh Richardson | 16 | 1-9 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | - | |
| Dru Smith | 14 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | - | |
| Thomas Bryant | 11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
Memphis Grizzlies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Bane * | 36 | 4-16 | 2-8 | 5-6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 10 | - | |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. * | 33 | 9-18 | 2-8 | 8-10 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 17 | - | |
| Marcus Smart * | 32 | 4-14 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 10 | - | |
| Bismack Biyombo * | 29 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16 | - | |
| Ziaire Williams * | 20 | 1-9 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -3 | - | |
| Luke Kennard | 27 | 4-7 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 12 | - | |
| Santi Aldama | 26 | 5-14 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 9 | - | |
| Jacob Gilyard | 14 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - | |
| David Roddy | 12 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - | |
| Kenneth Lofton Jr. | 7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
* = starter