Model Predictions
| Model | Los Angeles Lakers | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 34.5% | 65.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 52.8% | 47.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 39.0% | 61.0% | +2.5 | ✓ (1.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.4% | 53.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 45.1% | 54.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 48.2% | 51.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 48.2% | 51.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.8% | 56.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +1 (108-107). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Los Angeles Lakers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Reaves * | 40 | 9-14 | 3-8 | 2-3 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 23 | - | - | |
| LeBron James * | 37 | 13-23 | 0-4 | 4-4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 30 | - | - | |
| Taurean Prince * | 34 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| D'Angelo Russell * | 28 | 6-10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Anthony Davis * | 24 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | - | - | |
| Christian Wood | 30 | 4-10 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Cam Reddish | 28 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Max Christie | 15 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 38 | 9-20 | 1-1 | 3-5 | 19 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 22 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 36 | 9-15 | 3-4 | 7-7 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 28 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 34 | 8-20 | 2-10 | 4-4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 32 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 22 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 26 | 5-11 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Josh Richardson | 21 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 18 | 4-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Thomas Bryant | 9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter