Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Milwaukee Bucks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 44.9% | 55.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.2% | 61.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 43.2% | 56.8% | +1.5 | ✓ (6.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.4% | 54.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 41.7% | 58.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 42.5% | 57.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 42.5% | 57.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 40.3% | 59.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Milwaukee Bucks +8 (122-114). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 42 | 12-21 | 2-5 | 9-10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 35 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 28 | 4-11 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 27 | 3-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Thomas Bryant * | 21 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love * | 17 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Orlando Robinson | 26 | 4-7 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Josh Richardson | 23 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 22 | 3-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 21 | 6-10 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jovic | 7 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - |
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard * | 35 | 7-14 | 2-7 | 9-11 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 25 | - | - | |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo * | 31 | 12-21 | 1-3 | 8-11 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 33 | - | - | |
| Malik Beasley * | 31 | 2-8 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Brook Lopez * | 29 | 5-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | - | - | |
| Khris Middleton * | 17 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Jae Crowder | 25 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | - | - | |
| Pat Connaughton | 22 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | - | - | |
| Bobby Portis | 18 | 7-10 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 16 | - | - | |
| AJ Green | 15 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Cameron Payne | 12 | 4-5 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - |
* = starter