Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Boston Celtics | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.3% | 79.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 22.5% | 77.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 15.1% | 84.9% | +9.5 | ✓ (1.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 38.0% | 62.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 14.7% | 85.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 18.4% | 81.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 18.4% | 81.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 23.9% | 76.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Boston Celtics +8 (119-111). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 40 | 10-20 | 5-12 | 3-3 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 28 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 35 | 10-23 | 0-0 | 7-9 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 27 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 33 | 3-11 | 0-0 | 8-9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 31 | 5-7 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love * | 20 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 24 | 3-7 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Dru Smith | 23 | 3-6 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 14 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Thomas Bryant | 12 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| Jamal Cain | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum * | 41 | 9-22 | 3-10 | 1-3 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Derrick White * | 36 | 9-15 | 5-7 | 5-6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 28 | - | - | |
| Jrue Holiday * | 36 | 7-13 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 17 | - | - | |
| Jaylen Brown * | 33 | 11-22 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 27 | - | - | |
| Kristaps Porzingis * | 30 | 6-12 | 2-6 | 3-4 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 17 | - | - | |
| Al Horford | 24 | 0-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | - | |
| Oshae Brissett | 14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Payton Pritchard | 12 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Sam Hauser | 10 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - |
* = starter