Model Predictions
| Model | Detroit Pistons | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 67.4% | 32.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 55.9% | 44.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 56.7% | 43.3% | -1.5 | ✗ (2.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 32.6% | 67.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 15.8% | 84.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 19.7% | 80.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 19.6% | 80.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 24.4% | 75.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +1 (103-102). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Detroit Pistons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham * | 35 | 13-27 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 30 | - | - | |
| Isaiah Stewart * | 34 | 6-11 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Jalen Duren * | 31 | 8-11 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 17 | - | - | |
| Killian Hayes * | 30 | 4-12 | 0-6 | 2-3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Ausar Thompson * | 26 | 1-7 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - | - | |
| Alec Burks | 24 | 2-8 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | - | - | |
| Jaden Ivey | 17 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Marvin Bagley III | 16 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | - | - | |
| Joe Harris | 11 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Marcus Sasser | 10 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 34 | 7-24 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 34 | 6-18 | 0-0 | 7-9 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 32 | 7-13 | 0-0 | 8-10 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 22 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 31 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love * | 27 | 4-9 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 22 | 6-10 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 19 | 1-7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Thomas Bryant | 15 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 13 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Dru Smith | 8 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter