Model Predictions
| Model | Milwaukee Bucks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.1% | 61.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 47.7% | 52.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 40.5% | 59.5% | +2.1 | ✗ (9.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.6% | 51.4% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 52.3% | 47.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 51.5% | 48.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 51.5% | 48.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.2% | 53.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -7 (124-131). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo * | 39 | 11-16 | 1-2 | 10-13 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 33 | - | - | |
| Malik Beasley * | 37 | 6-11 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | - | - | |
| Damian Lillard * | 37 | 9-18 | 4-9 | 10-10 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 32 | - | - | |
| Brook Lopez * | 31 | 5-10 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | - | - | |
| Khris Middleton * | 23 | 7-13 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Bobby Portis | 22 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Cameron Payne | 17 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Pat Connaughton | 15 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| MarJon Beauchamp | 8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Andre Jackson Jr. | 3 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| AJ Green | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 42 | 13-27 | 0-0 | 5-7 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 31 | - | - | |
| Josh Richardson * | 36 | 7-13 | 3-7 | 3-4 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 33 | 7-10 | 3-5 | 4-4 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 21 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 31 | 5-11 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love * | 25 | 2-11 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 32 | 7-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 14 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 25 | 6-11 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Jamal Cain | 11 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - |
* = starter