Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Charlotte Hornets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 54.6% | 45.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 63.4% | 36.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 66.6% | 33.4% | -3.8 | ✓ (2.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 64.3% | 35.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 81.9% | 18.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 78.2% | 21.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 78.2% | 21.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 67.4% | 32.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Charlotte Hornets -6 (105-111). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 35 | 8-16 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 21 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 35 | 6-13 | 4-10 | 2-2 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 34 | 10-14 | 1-1 | 11-14 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 32 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 32 | 5-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 12 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 14 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Josh Richardson | 33 | 2-10 | 0-6 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 32 | 8-13 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love | 13 | 0-5 | 0-5 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Thomas Bryant | 3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Dru Smith | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Charlotte Hornets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaMelo Ball * | 39 | 9-26 | 4-10 | 6-6 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 28 | - | - | |
| P.J. Washington * | 36 | 12-23 | 6-11 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 32 | - | - | |
| JT Thor * | 27 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Mark Williams * | 23 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Theo Maledon * | 22 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Bryce McGowens | 28 | 4-7 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Nick Richards | 24 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Ish Smith | 18 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Nick Smith Jr. | 15 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Leaky Black | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter