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2023-11-04

Model Predictions

Model Dallas Mavericks Denver Nuggets Spread Result
Elo 21.6% 78.4% -
Bradley-Terry 26.1% 73.9% -
Margin 23.5% 76.5% +6.5 (4.5 off)
Pythagorean 44.7% 55.3% -
Efficiency 39.0% 61.0% -
Adjusted Efficiency 43.2% 56.8% -
Log Adjusted 43.3% 56.7% -
Points Off/Def 40.6% 59.4% -

Actual: Denver Nuggets +11 (125-114). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Dallas Mavericks

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
Luka Doncic * 38 11-24 6-11 6-7 10 8 0 1 34 - -
Kyrie Irving * 34 9-15 1-5 3-4 1 7 4 2 22 - -
Grant Williams * 32 4-10 3-7 2-2 5 2 1 2 13 - -
Dereck Lively II * 24 2-3 0-1 0-0 4 0 1 1 4 - -
Derrick Jones Jr. * 16 3-5 1-3 0-0 1 1 2 0 7 - -
Josh Green 27 5-8 3-5 0-0 5 2 2 0 13 - -
Tim Hardaway Jr. 26 3-8 1-5 2-2 3 2 1 0 9 - -
Dwight Powell 16 2-5 0-0 2-2 1 1 0 0 6 - -
Jaden Hardy 14 2-6 2-4 0-0 3 3 0 0 6 - -
Seth Curry 5 0-1 0-1 0-0 1 1 1 0 0 - -
Dante Exum 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 - -
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 1 0-1 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 - -

Denver Nuggets

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
Jamal Murray * 39 5-15 2-6 6-6 2 13 1 0 18 - -
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope * 36 3-7 2-3 0-0 5 1 2 0 8 - -
Aaron Gordon * 35 8-17 2-6 0-0 8 6 2 1 18 - -
Nikola Jokic * 35 14-16 2-2 3-5 14 9 1 1 33 - -
Michael Porter Jr. * 34 10-18 4-8 0-0 9 1 0 2 24 - -
Reggie Jackson 19 3-10 1-4 1-2 1 2 4 0 8 - -
Christian Braun 14 3-4 0-0 3-3 5 0 1 0 9 - -
Peyton Watson 12 1-4 0-1 1-2 3 1 0 2 3 - -
Zeke Nnaji 11 2-2 0-0 0-1 4 0 0 0 4 - -

* = starter