Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Detroit Pistons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 19.4% | 80.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.5% | 64.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 34.6% | 65.4% | +3.5 | ✗ (16.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 60.1% | 39.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 74.9% | 25.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 73.5% | 26.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 73.5% | 26.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 62.6% | 37.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Detroit Pistons -13 (105-118). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 37 | 7-16 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent * | 36 | 8-14 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 35 | 9-12 | 0-0 | 9-11 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 27 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 31 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Max Strus * | 29 | 3-10 | 2-8 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 29 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry | 23 | 3-6 | 2-5 | 3-3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love | 16 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | - | - |
Detroit Pistons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Killian Hayes * | 42 | 3-8 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Jaden Ivey * | 37 | 11-15 | 4-6 | 4-5 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 30 | - | - | |
| Jalen Duren * | 35 | 7-8 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | - | - | |
| James Wiseman * | 29 | 6-14 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Isaiah Livers * | 23 | 4-9 | 4-6 | 3-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Cory Joseph | 27 | 2-7 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Eugene Omoruyi | 25 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 6-7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| R.J. Hampton | 15 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| Jared Rhoden | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter