Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 41.4% | 58.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.1% | 56.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 39.4% | 60.6% | +2.4 | ✓ (4.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.5% | 52.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 47.0% | 53.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 45.0% | 55.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 45.0% | 55.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.4% | 57.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +7 (129-122). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic * | 44 | 17-25 | 2-6 | 6-7 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 42 | - | - | |
| Kyrie Irving * | 42 | 10-17 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 23 | - | - | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. * | 40 | 11-15 | 6-10 | 3-4 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31 | - | - | |
| Reggie Bullock * | 23 | 1-5 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Dwight Powell * | 17 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| Maxi Kleber | 26 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Josh Green | 21 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Christian Wood | 12 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | - | - | |
| Jaden Hardy | 6 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Justin Holiday | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 36 | 12-16 | 1-3 | 10-11 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 35 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 36 | 5-16 | 2-8 | 3-3 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Max Strus * | 30 | 6-11 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Cody Zeller * | 28 | 9-13 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent * | 26 | 3-8 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 33 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry | 26 | 1-8 | 0-5 | 4-5 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love | 19 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 6-6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter