Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Detroit Pistons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 19.4% | 80.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.5% | 64.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 34.6% | 65.4% | +3.5 | ✗ (15.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 60.1% | 39.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 74.9% | 25.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 73.5% | 26.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 73.5% | 26.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 62.6% | 37.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Detroit Pistons -12 (100-112). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 39 | 7-12 | 0-0 | 8-9 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 22 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 34 | 7-17 | 3-9 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 34 | 8-11 | 0-0 | 10-11 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 26 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love * | 23 | 4-9 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent * | 22 | 2-8 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 30 | 5-10 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry | 25 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 24 | 2-9 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Omer Yurtseven | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Detroit Pistons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden Ivey * | 38 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Rodney McGruder * | 37 | 5-13 | 2-8 | 3-3 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Killian Hayes * | 37 | 6-14 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| James Wiseman * | 33 | 10-13 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Marvin Bagley III * | 29 | 6-11 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | - | - | |
| Cory Joseph | 28 | 5-11 | 3-6 | 3-4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Eugene Omoruyi | 20 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Jalen Duren | 8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| Buddy Boeheim | 6 | 0-5 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter