Model Predictions
| Model | Memphis Grizzlies | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 28.6% | 71.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 47.5% | 52.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 49.3% | 50.7% | +0.2 | ✓ (18.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 50.0% | 50.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 57.8% | 42.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 51.3% | 48.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 51.2% | 48.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.7% | 53.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +19 (138-119). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Memphis Grizzlies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaren Jackson Jr. * | 28 | 10-15 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 25 | - | - | |
| Tyus Jones * | 28 | 5-10 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Dillon Brooks * | 26 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Xavier Tillman * | 22 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Desmond Bane * | 21 | 4-11 | 2-7 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| John Konchar | 22 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Santi Aldama | 20 | 2-8 | 0-5 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Luke Kennard | 19 | 4-6 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| David Roddy | 17 | 2-7 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Kenneth Lofton Jr. | 12 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Ziaire Williams | 12 | 5-8 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Kennedy Chandler | 7 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 33 | 10-15 | 0-0 | 6-8 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 26 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 33 | 9-14 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 24 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 27 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 11-12 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 23 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent * | 21 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love * | 18 | 3-7 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 32 | 4-11 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 29 | 4-5 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry | 20 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 12 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Omer Yurtseven | 6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 3 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter