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2023-03-09

Model Predictions

Model Chicago Bulls Denver Nuggets Spread Result
Elo 23.5% 76.5% -
Bradley-Terry 26.5% 73.5% -
Margin 21.3% 78.7% +7.2 (28.2 off)
Pythagorean 44.7% 55.3% -
Efficiency 35.0% 65.0% -
Adjusted Efficiency 41.8% 58.2% -
Log Adjusted 41.9% 58.1% -
Points Off/Def 39.3% 60.7% -

Actual: Denver Nuggets -21 (96-117). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Chicago Bulls

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
DeMar DeRozan * 38 6-16 0-2 5-6 6 8 3 0 17 - -
Nikola Vucevic * 34 9-17 2-4 5-5 15 3 0 0 25 - -
Zach LaVine * 33 12-18 3-5 2-2 5 4 2 0 29 - -
Patrick Beverley * 23 1-4 1-3 0-0 6 4 0 1 3 - -
Alex Caruso * 17 3-8 0-2 0-0 3 2 1 0 6 - -
Patrick Williams 30 8-9 1-2 1-1 4 0 1 0 18 - -
Coby White 25 3-10 1-6 0-0 4 4 0 0 7 - -
Ayo Dosunmu 19 2-4 0-0 4-4 1 0 2 0 8 - -
Andre Drummond 11 1-2 0-0 0-0 5 1 0 1 2 - -
Derrick Jones Jr. 2 1-1 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 2 - -
Dalen Terry 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 - -

Denver Nuggets

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
Nikola Jokic * 35 7-16 3-9 1-4 12 8 0 0 18 - -
Jamal Murray * 35 4-15 1-7 2-2 2 6 0 0 11 - -
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope * 31 2-7 1-4 0-0 2 4 3 0 5 - -
Aaron Gordon * 28 6-14 1-3 4-9 9 2 0 1 17 - -
Michael Porter Jr. * 23 5-13 2-7 0-0 5 0 0 1 12 - -
Reggie Jackson 23 2-8 2-5 0-0 0 2 0 0 6 - -
Bruce Brown 22 4-5 1-1 0-0 8 2 1 0 9 - -
Jeff Green 15 2-3 2-2 0-0 4 0 0 0 6 - -
Thomas Bryant 12 4-5 2-2 0-0 0 0 0 0 10 - -
Christian Braun 3 0-1 0-0 0-0 0 1 0 0 0 - -
Jack White 3 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 1 1 0 0 - -
Ish Smith 3 1-1 0-0 0-0 1 1 0 0 2 - -

* = starter