Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Charlotte Hornets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 54.7% | 45.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 64.8% | 35.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 66.7% | 33.3% | -3.8 | ✗ (8.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 58.1% | 41.9% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 69.0% | 31.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 71.3% | 28.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 71.3% | 28.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 60.6% | 39.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Charlotte Hornets +5 (108-103). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 40 | 10-23 | 6-12 | 7-7 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 33 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 33 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 16-20 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 28 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 31 | 6-14 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love * | 26 | 4-11 | 3-9 | 2-2 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent * | 26 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Victor Oladipo | 21 | 0-5 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 21 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 18 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Cody Zeller | 14 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Charlotte Hornets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaMelo Ball * | 39 | 6-22 | 5-16 | 2-5 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Terry Rozier * | 35 | 3-15 | 2-8 | 6-6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Gordon Hayward * | 30 | 8-14 | 1-2 | 4-5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Mark Williams * | 28 | 9-12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | - | - | |
| JT Thor * | 25 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Dennis Smith Jr. | 28 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | 22 | 5-10 | 1-2 | 4-5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Nick Richards | 19 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - | - | |
| Kai Jones | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter