Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 66.2% | 33.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 42.7% | 57.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 35.0% | 65.0% | +3.4 | ✓ (22.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 31.2% | 68.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 15.7% | 84.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 17.4% | 82.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 17.3% | 82.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 22.4% | 77.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +26 (142-116). Predictions use season-end ratings.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaki Branham * | 35 | 9-17 | 2-5 | 3-3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 23 | - | - | |
| Keldon Johnson * | 31 | 8-13 | 1-3 | 5-8 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Keita Bates-Diop * | 29 | 6-10 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Devonte' Graham * | 28 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 4-6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Zach Collins * | 27 | 6-15 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Doug McDermott | 24 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Blake Wesley | 20 | 3-8 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Charles Bassey | 19 | 7-8 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Dominick Barlow | 16 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Gorgui Dieng | 7 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic * | 30 | 8-16 | 1-6 | 11-12 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 28 | - | - | |
| Kyrie Irving * | 29 | 8-13 | 3-4 | 4-4 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 23 | - | - | |
| Dwight Powell * | 26 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Reggie Bullock * | 25 | 4-6 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Josh Green * | 25 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | - | - | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 26 | 7-12 | 6-11 | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Christian Wood | 22 | 4-10 | 0-2 | 8-9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | - | - | |
| Justin Holiday | 21 | 5-7 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Frank Ntilikina | 20 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Theo Pinson | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Jaden Hardy | 4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - |
* = starter