Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 21.5% | 78.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 25.3% | 74.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 24.1% | 75.9% | +6.3 | ✓ (2.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.6% | 56.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 31.8% | 68.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 37.5% | 62.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 37.5% | 62.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.9% | 63.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets +9 (118-109). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic * | 34 | 12-22 | 3-8 | 10-12 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 37 | - | - | |
| Reggie Bullock * | 29 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - | - | |
| Josh Green * | 28 | 2-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Frank Ntilikina * | 23 | 2-6 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Dwight Powell * | 21 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Jaden Hardy | 24 | 2-8 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Christian Wood | 21 | 6-13 | 2-6 | 3-3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | - | - | |
| Theo Pinson | 20 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| A.J. Lawson | 12 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| McKinley Wright IV | 12 | 4-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| JaVale McGee | 9 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | - | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic * | 34 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 13 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 14 | - | - | |
| Michael Porter Jr. * | 32 | 8-16 | 5-10 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22 | - | - | |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope * | 31 | 4-7 | 3-6 | 3-3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 | - | - | |
| Bruce Brown * | 29 | 5-10 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Vlatko Cancar * | 25 | 5-11 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Christian Braun | 26 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Jeff Green | 25 | 11-16 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 24 | - | - | |
| Ish Smith | 18 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Thomas Bryant | 13 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Peyton Watson | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Jack White | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter