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Denver Nuggets 112
@
Miami Heat 108
2023-02-14

Model Predictions

Model Denver Nuggets Miami Heat Spread Result
Elo 64.6% 35.4% - ✓
Bradley-Terry 62.7% 37.3% - ✓
Margin 58.5% 41.5% -1.9 ✓ (2.1 off)
Pythagorean 50.9% 49.1% - ✓
Efficiency 62.2% 37.8% - ✓
Adjusted Efficiency 54.6% 45.4% - ✓
Log Adjusted 54.5% 45.5% - ✓
Points Off/Def 49.0% 51.0% - ✗

Actual: Miami Heat -4 (108-112). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Denver Nuggets

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope * 36 3-5 2-3 0-0 4 6 0 2 8 - -
Michael Porter Jr. * 33 6-15 5-13 0-0 6 0 1 1 17 - -
Nikola Jokic * 33 12-14 0-0 3-3 12 8 0 0 27 - -
Bruce Brown * 32 6-12 3-7 1-2 2 3 0 0 16 - -
Vlatko Cancar * 28 4-6 0-2 2-2 5 6 1 1 10 - -
Christian Braun 26 4-6 1-2 1-2 4 4 1 0 10 - -
Jeff Green 19 4-9 0-1 4-4 2 1 0 0 12 - -
Ish Smith 15 1-4 0-0 0-0 2 6 0 0 2 - -
Thomas Bryant 14 4-5 0-0 2-2 2 0 0 0 10 - -

Miami Heat

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
Max Strus * 41 8-20 4-14 3-5 7 4 1 0 23 - -
Gabe Vincent * 34 5-13 4-9 1-1 2 4 1 0 15 - -
Bam Adebayo * 34 6-14 0-0 7-7 2 2 2 1 19 - -
Jimmy Butler * 32 8-18 1-2 7-7 10 9 1 0 24 - -
Caleb Martin * 28 4-8 0-2 0-0 4 0 1 0 8 - -
Jamaree Bouyea 28 4-8 2-4 0-0 2 3 3 1 10 - -
Haywood Highsmith 27 1-5 1-4 0-0 1 3 0 2 3 - -
Orlando Robinson 13 3-3 0-0 0-0 6 0 0 0 6 - -

* = starter