Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Orlando Magic | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 37.5% | 62.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 39.5% | 60.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 41.7% | 58.3% | +1.8 | ✗ (5.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 51.3% | 48.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 56.9% | 43.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 58.7% | 41.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 58.7% | 41.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 51.2% | 48.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Orlando Magic -4 (103-107). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 46 | 10-23 | 2-10 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 3 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 43 | 5-10 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 29 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent * | 41 | 6-12 | 4-10 | 4-4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 13 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 33 | 7-17 | 0-1 | 8-8 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 22 | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 25 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 13 | - | |
| Max Strus | 39 | 4-12 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 11 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 16 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | - | |
| Jamaree Bouyea | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | |
| Orlando Robinson | 9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | - |
Orlando Magic
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franz Wagner * | 35 | 4-15 | 0-4 | 2-3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 | - | |
| Markelle Fultz * | 33 | 7-14 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 11 | - | |
| Paolo Banchero * | 33 | 6-16 | 0-4 | 4-4 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 14 | - | |
| Wendell Carter Jr. * | 31 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 4-4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 19 | - | |
| Gary Harris * | 28 | 2-9 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 1 | - | |
| Jalen Suggs | 27 | 5-7 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 16 | - | |
| Moritz Wagner | 21 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 4-6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 15 | - | |
| Cole Anthony | 19 | 3-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 | - | |
| Bol Bol | 19 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - | |
| Jonathan Isaac | 14 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - |
* = starter