Model Predictions
| Model | Houston Rockets | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 45.9% | 54.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 52.4% | 47.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 55.6% | 44.4% | -1.2 | ✗ (3.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 37.0% | 63.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 20.9% | 79.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 24.2% | 75.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 24.2% | 75.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 28.0% | 72.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +2 (97-95). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyon Martin Jr. * | 37 | 6-9 | 1-3 | 4-5 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 21 | - | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. * | 34 | 8-16 | 3-9 | 3-3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 16 | - | |
| Jalen Green * | 32 | 5-19 | 0-9 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 3 | - | |
| Alperen Sengun * | 30 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 15 | - | |
| Jae'Sean Tate * | 24 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | - | |
| TyTy Washington Jr. | 22 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | - | |
| Tari Eason | 19 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10 | - | |
| Daishen Nix | 14 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | - | |
| Usman Garuba | 13 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - | |
| Josh Christopher | 10 | 3-7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 5 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 37 | 11-20 | 5-10 | 4-4 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 30 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent * | 34 | 2-8 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 33 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 24 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 28 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 8-8 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 16 | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 19 | 2-9 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | - | |
| Max Strus | 34 | 4-12 | 3-11 | 3-3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 4 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 23 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - | |
| Orlando Robinson | 14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | |
| Jamaree Bouyea | 14 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
* = starter