Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana Pacers | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 25.1% | 74.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 47.2% | 52.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 37.6% | 62.4% | +2.8 | ✓ (2.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.4% | 56.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 35.1% | 64.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 35.3% | 64.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 35.3% | 64.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 35.2% | 64.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +5 (116-111). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Haliburton * | 37 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 3-6 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 17 | - | |
| Buddy Hield * | 36 | 10-18 | 6-12 | 3-3 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 22 | - | |
| Aaron Nesmith * | 29 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | - | |
| Myles Turner * | 29 | 4-9 | 3-5 | 10-11 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 24 | - | |
| Andrew Nembhard * | 28 | 4-9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | - | |
| T.J. McConnell | 27 | 8-12 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 15 | - | |
| Chris Duarte | 19 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - | |
| Daniel Theis | 18 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | - | |
| Bennedict Mathurin | 13 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 40 | 4-14 | 1-3 | 6-6 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 11 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent * | 37 | 4-11 | 3-7 | 6-7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 14 | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 37 | 4-11 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 19 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 36 | 12-16 | 0-0 | 14-14 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 35 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 35 | 9-18 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 20 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 24 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | - | |
| Max Strus | 16 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | - | |
| Orlando Robinson | 11 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
* = starter