Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Milwaukee Bucks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 45.6% | 54.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.8% | 65.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 37.4% | 62.6% | +2.8 | ✓ (5.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.2% | 55.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 37.1% | 62.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 41.6% | 58.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 41.6% | 58.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.7% | 60.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Milwaukee Bucks +8 (123-115). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 38 | 10-24 | 2-8 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 24 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 35 | 7-15 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent * | 34 | 3-9 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 33 | 11-21 | 1-2 | 9-10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 32 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 30 | 6-13 | 2-6 | 3-5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 30 | 3-6 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 24 | 5-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 12 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | - | - |
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo * | 35 | 13-19 | 0-2 | 9-16 | 15 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 35 | - | - | |
| Jrue Holiday * | 34 | 6-9 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Brook Lopez * | 33 | 4-11 | 0-3 | 1-4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | - | - | |
| Grayson Allen * | 33 | 7-11 | 4-7 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Pat Connaughton * | 30 | 5-10 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Khris Middleton | 20 | 9-14 | 1-4 | 5-5 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 24 | - | - | |
| Wesley Matthews | 19 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | - | |
| Joe Ingles | 18 | 0-6 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Jevon Carter | 14 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - |
* = starter