Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Charlotte Hornets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 54.7% | 45.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 64.8% | 35.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 66.7% | 33.3% | -3.8 | ✗ (8.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 58.1% | 41.9% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 69.0% | 31.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 71.3% | 28.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 71.3% | 28.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 60.6% | 39.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Charlotte Hornets +5 (122-117). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 35 | 8-15 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 34 | 9-21 | 5-9 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 33 | 11-14 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 28 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 30 | 3-11 | 2-7 | 3-3 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 27 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Victor Oladipo | 32 | 4-12 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 17 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 16 | 4-8 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Orlando Robinson | 12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
Charlotte Hornets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaMelo Ball * | 36 | 7-17 | 4-13 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | - | - | |
| Terry Rozier * | 36 | 11-19 | 5-11 | 4-5 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 31 | - | - | |
| P.J. Washington * | 35 | 11-19 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 27 | - | - | |
| Mason Plumlee * | 28 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2-6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Gordon Hayward * | 26 | 7-7 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Jalen McDaniels | 25 | 1-6 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Dennis Smith Jr. | 19 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Mark Williams | 19 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | - | - | |
| JT Thor | 12 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter