Model Predictions
| Model | Orlando Magic | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 46.3% | 53.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 39.8% | 60.2% | +2.3 | ✓ (2.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 42.7% | 57.3% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 37.1% | 62.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 35.3% | 64.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 35.3% | 64.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 35.5% | 64.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +5 (110-105). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Orlando Magic
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paolo Banchero * | 35 | 4-14 | 1-6 | 10-13 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 12 | - | |
| Franz Wagner * | 32 | 6-10 | 3-4 | 4-4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 17 | - | |
| Wendell Carter Jr. * | 31 | 7-12 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 16 | - | |
| Markelle Fultz * | 30 | 5-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 12 | - | |
| Gary Harris * | 28 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 | - | |
| Cole Anthony | 27 | 5-9 | 4-7 | 5-6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 18 | - | |
| Bol Bol | 19 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - | |
| Jalen Suggs | 17 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | - | |
| Moritz Wagner | 16 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 7 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 36 | 7-14 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 21 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 32 | 10-17 | 0-2 | 9-12 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 26 | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 29 | 4-12 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 8 | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 27 | 6-9 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 15 | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 25 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 | - | |
| Max Strus | 29 | 5-8 | 5-7 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 13 | - | |
| Victor Oladipo | 21 | 1-8 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 18 | 3-8 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 5 | - | |
| Orlando Robinson | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 6 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter