Model Predictions
| Model | New Orleans Pelicans | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 25.1% | 74.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 31.4% | 68.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 20.7% | 79.3% | +7.4 | ✓ (3.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.9% | 50.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 52.2% | 47.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 51.4% | 48.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 51.4% | 48.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.3% | 53.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +4 (100-96). Predictions use season-end ratings.
New Orleans Pelicans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ McCollum * | 37 | 5-16 | 2-8 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Trey Murphy III * | 34 | 6-11 | 2-6 | 3-3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Herbert Jones * | 30 | 4-5 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | - | - | |
| Dyson Daniels * | 30 | 4-7 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | - | - | |
| Jonas Valanciunas * | 24 | 7-14 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | - | - | |
| Larry Nance Jr. | 26 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 12 | - | - | |
| Jose Alvarado | 22 | 1-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Jaxson Hayes | 17 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Devonte' Graham | 16 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 7 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 35 | 10-22 | 4-10 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 26 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 34 | 7-12 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 33 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 8-10 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 29 | 6-9 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 26 | 1-9 | 0-6 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Victor Oladipo | 33 | 4-9 | 0-3 | 3-5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 18 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 14 | 0-5 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Orlando Robinson | 13 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | - |
* = starter