Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 41.5% | 58.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 42.6% | 57.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 42.2% | 57.8% | +1.7 | ✓ (23.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.5% | 53.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 47.0% | 53.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 49.0% | 51.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 49.0% | 51.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.0% | 56.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +25 (115-90). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 34 | 7-14 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 32 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 29 | 6-11 | 0-2 | 4-5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 25 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 20 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Victor Oladipo | 28 | 9-12 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 27 | 3-9 | 1-6 | 3-4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 23 | 0-5 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Orlando Robinson | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 5 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic * | 37 | 12-24 | 5-8 | 5-8 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 34 | - | - | |
| Dwight Powell * | 33 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Spencer Dinwiddie * | 30 | 5-12 | 3-10 | 6-6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. * | 26 | 1-10 | 1-5 | 5-5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Dorian Finney-Smith * | 24 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Reggie Bullock | 28 | 5-7 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 15 | - | - | |
| Josh Green | 27 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 5-5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Davis Bertans | 9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Jaden Hardy | 8 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Frank Ntilikina | 4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| A.J. Lawson | 4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Theo Pinson | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter