Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Atlanta Hawks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.4% | 61.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 41.6% | 58.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 45.9% | 54.1% | +0.9 | ✓ (7.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.1% | 52.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 48.4% | 51.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 47.9% | 52.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 47.9% | 52.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.4% | 56.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Atlanta Hawks +8 (121-113). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 36 | 9-19 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 33 | 11-16 | 1-1 | 11-11 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 34 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 31 | 7-16 | 1-8 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent * | 26 | 4-10 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 25 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Victor Oladipo | 34 | 3-8 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 27 | 3-9 | 2-7 | 5-5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 12 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Orlando Robinson | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dejounte Murray * | 35 | 11-17 | 5-8 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 28 | - | - | |
| Trae Young * | 35 | 6-13 | 3-6 | 9-11 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 24 | - | - | |
| De'Andre Hunter * | 33 | 6-10 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| John Collins * | 31 | 6-9 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Onyeka Okongwu * | 27 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | - | - | |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | 30 | 2-11 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Clint Capela | 20 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | - | - | |
| AJ Griffin | 20 | 5-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Aaron Holiday | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter