Model Predictions
| Model | Milwaukee Bucks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 37.4% | 62.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.3% | 48.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 44.3% | 55.7% | +1.3 | ✓ (14.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.8% | 50.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 56.9% | 43.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 52.4% | 47.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.4% | 47.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.8% | 53.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +16 (111-95). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jrue Holiday * | 35 | 5-14 | 1-7 | 1-4 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Brook Lopez * | 33 | 5-10 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | - | - | |
| Pat Connaughton * | 30 | 5-12 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Bobby Portis * | 27 | 4-10 | 1-2 | 6-6 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Grayson Allen * | 26 | 4-9 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Joe Ingles | 25 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Jevon Carter | 24 | 4-9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| AJ Green | 16 | 3-7 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| MarJon Beauchamp | 10 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | 7 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Thanasis Antetokounmpo | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Strus * | 41 | 3-11 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent * | 39 | 11-14 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 27 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 30 | 9-19 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 26 | 7-14 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 25 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Victor Oladipo | 35 | 8-17 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Jamal Cain | 22 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Orlando Robinson | 17 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - | - |
* = starter