Model Predictions
| Model | Oklahoma City Thunder | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 67.7% | 32.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 71.8% | 28.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 81.1% | 18.9% | -8.0 | ✗ (9.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.4% | 50.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 49.2% | 50.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 46.2% | 53.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 46.2% | 53.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.6% | 56.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +1 (112-111). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander * | 38 | 9-18 | 2-4 | 6-7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 26 | - | - | |
| Jalen Williams * | 32 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 12 | - | - | |
| Josh Giddey * | 32 | 8-18 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 15 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 18 | - | - | |
| Luguentz Dort * | 32 | 4-13 | 1-6 | 2-4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Eugene Omoruyi * | 16 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Kenrich Williams | 23 | 6-8 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Mike Muscala | 16 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| Isaiah Joe | 15 | 2-7 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Lindy Waters III | 12 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 3-4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Aaron Wiggins | 12 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Tre Mann | 7 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Strus * | 42 | 8-19 | 4-12 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent * | 39 | 3-12 | 1-6 | 6-6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 37 | 6-17 | 0-1 | 23-23 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 35 | - | - | |
| Orlando Robinson * | 24 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 24 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Victor Oladipo | 33 | 7-16 | 3-8 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Jamal Cain | 32 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 5-5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter