Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Los Angeles Lakers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 49.6% | 50.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 36.3% | 63.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 45.1% | 54.9% | +1.1 | ✓ (1.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.6% | 51.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 46.5% | 53.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.8% | 46.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.8% | 46.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 47.5% | 52.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Los Angeles Lakers +3 (112-109). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 37 | 13-23 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 30 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 34 | 4-14 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 33 | 11-22 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 27 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 31 | 4-7 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 21 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Victor Oladipo | 31 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 22 | 2-8 | 1-6 | 3-3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 16 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| Orlando Robinson | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Los Angeles Lakers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder * | 40 | 8-15 | 4-7 | 12-14 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 32 | - | - | |
| Austin Reaves * | 32 | 3-11 | 0-4 | 5-5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Thomas Bryant * | 28 | 9-11 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 21 | - | - | |
| Patrick Beverley * | 26 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | - | - | |
| Juan Toscano-Anderson * | 22 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| Russell Westbrook | 35 | 8-18 | 2-6 | 3-6 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Wenyen Gabriel | 19 | 4-6 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn | 14 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Troy Brown Jr. | 13 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Max Christie | 6 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter