Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 21.5% | 78.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 25.1% | 74.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 25.2% | 74.8% | +6.0 | ✓ (1.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.1% | 56.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 31.8% | 68.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 39.4% | 60.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 39.5% | 60.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.7% | 62.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets +5 (124-119). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 37 | 5-13 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 22 | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 32 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 32 | 9-18 | 4-9 | 4-4 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 24 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 30 | 6-14 | 0-0 | 10-11 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 23 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 21 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 5 | - | |
| Max Strus | 33 | 7-13 | 4-8 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 9 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 19 | 3-7 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | - | |
| Orlando Robinson | 17 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 14 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 15 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic * | 36 | 8-15 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 12 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 30 | - | |
| Aaron Gordon * | 33 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 3-5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 13 | - | |
| Jamal Murray * | 33 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 5-5 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 13 | - | |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope * | 30 | 7-7 | 4-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 17 | - | |
| Michael Porter Jr. * | 25 | 4-11 | 0-3 | 2-4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 9 | - | |
| Bruce Brown | 25 | 5-8 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 10 | - | |
| Bones Hyland | 23 | 5-9 | 5-6 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 13 | - | |
| Vlatko Cancar | 17 | 5-5 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 14 | - | |
| DeAndre Jordan | 11 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - | |
| Christian Braun | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter