Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana Pacers | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 25.1% | 74.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 47.2% | 52.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 37.6% | 62.4% | +2.8 | ✗ (5.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.4% | 56.6% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 35.1% | 64.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 35.3% | 64.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 35.3% | 64.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 35.2% | 64.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -3 (108-111). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Haliburton * | 37 | 14-20 | 10-16 | 5-5 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 43 | - | - | |
| Buddy Hield * | 34 | 7-15 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Andrew Nembhard * | 34 | 4-11 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Myles Turner * | 25 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | - | - | |
| Bennedict Mathurin * | 19 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Oshae Brissett | 26 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 2-5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Jalen Smith | 22 | 6-9 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | - | - | |
| T.J. McConnell | 20 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Chris Duarte | 19 | 2-6 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 38 | 10-23 | 5-13 | 3-3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 28 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 37 | 8-19 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 34 | 8-16 | 4-8 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 27 | 6-11 | 1-2 | 7-8 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 19 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - | - | |
| Victor Oladipo | 27 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 22 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 21 | 2-9 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Orlando Robinson | 10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter