Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | San Antonio Spurs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.4% | 79.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 42.8% | 57.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 48.3% | 51.7% | +0.4 | ✗ (10.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 62.4% | 37.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 78.3% | 21.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 77.9% | 22.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 77.9% | 22.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 67.5% | 32.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Antonio Spurs -10 (101-111). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 38 | 6-16 | 3-9 | 6-6 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 20 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 35 | 11-18 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 21 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 34 | 9-15 | 1-2 | 7-10 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 23 | - | |
| Max Strus * | 27 | 5-10 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 10 | - | |
| Nikola Jovic * | 14 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - | |
| Victor Oladipo | 33 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 10 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 25 | 4-8 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 18 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 7 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | - | |
| Orlando Robinson | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keldon Johnson * | 33 | 6-14 | 3-5 | 7-7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 14 | - | |
| Devin Vassell * | 31 | 5-14 | 1-7 | 7-9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 10 | - | |
| Tre Jones * | 31 | 2-10 | 0-2 | 5-6 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 12 | - | |
| Jakob Poeltl * | 20 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 10 | - | |
| Jeremy Sochan * | 16 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - | |
| Keita Bates-Diop | 32 | 5-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 10 | - | |
| Zach Collins | 24 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 21 | - | |
| Doug McDermott | 21 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | - | |
| Malaki Branham | 19 | 4-5 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 9 | - | |
| Stanley Johnson | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - | |
| Isaiah Roby | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | |
| Charles Bassey | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
* = starter