Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Houston Rockets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 37.1% | 62.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 33.8% | 66.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 27.5% | 72.5% | +5.3 | ✗ (8.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 57.0% | 43.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 73.1% | 26.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 69.8% | 30.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 69.8% | 30.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 59.8% | 40.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Houston Rockets -3 (108-111). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 39 | 13-20 | 10-15 | 5-5 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 41 | 31 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 35 | 7-13 | 0-1 | 6-10 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 31 | - | |
| Max Strus * | 33 | 5-14 | 2-11 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 7 | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 30 | 5-9 | 0-3 | 3-3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 6 | - | |
| Udonis Haslem * | 11 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - | |
| Orlando Robinson | 35 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 16 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 30 | 3-9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 11 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 23 | 3-12 | 2-11 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | - |
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Green * | 35 | 8-21 | 1-6 | 5-6 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 11 | - | |
| Kevin Porter Jr. * | 35 | 10-17 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 21 | 21 | - | |
| Eric Gordon * | 32 | 4-11 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 6 | - | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. * | 32 | 6-14 | 1-7 | 2-3 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 14 | - | |
| Alperen Sengun * | 23 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | - | |
| Kenyon Martin Jr. | 20 | 4-8 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 6 | - | |
| Usman Garuba | 20 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | - | |
| Tari Eason | 15 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | - | |
| TyTy Washington Jr. | 12 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | - | |
| Garrison Mathews | 7 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - | |
| Bruno Fernando | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
* = starter